A scary look at a possible(?) future

This link was posted at Baen's Bar and piqued my interest.

Brings to mind a couple of points for me.

1/ I had an interesting conversation with a muslim taxi driver(quite a lot of them in Auckland). He agreed with my guess that most of the muslims who had come to NZ had done so to get away from the fruitcake fanatics in their homelands. As for the imans, he suggested that I knew more about the activities of their prophet than they did.

2/ Just to take a really cold veiw of things, I think the best part about the coalition presence in Iraq is that it gives the nutters a target against which to expend themselves and their resources. I don't know what the casualty ratios are like, but the Brits and Yanks should have a good core of salted troops if anyone wants to open the full can of whoop-ass in the next 5-10 years.

On defence spending in the civilised world.

Up until maybe WWI, military force was still considered to be a reasonable and legitimate means of furthering national interests in the western world. Currently military force is considered more appropriate for use in defense of national interests. Except of course, for those who consider the use of military force to be the ultimate evil which can never be justified. But lets keep them out of the discussion for now.
With the breakup of the Soviet Union, the 'west' has really only got China as a semi-rational possible military threat.
Have I mentioned I really don't like that use of the word west in that context. NZ is east of everyone.
Anyway, what the coalition really needs to be prepared for is the crazy folk. People who don't have rational goals or motivation. Or rather, not rational as we would see it.
For example, holding Aussie and/or NZ would be a nightmare. No question there. But for anyone other than China to invade would not be a rational act. That doesn't mean we ignore the possibility, it means we check for signs of irrational behaviour.
Indonesia is an example relevant to this part of the world.
There is a significant level of anti-western, anti-christian, and anti-hindu feeling in the indonesian population. To date, the govt has keep a lid on things by stepping on anyone who stepped too far out of line. East Timor has a large catholic population, and had come to UN notice. And I suspect Helen Clark(our PM) is looking for a senior position in the UN when we finally kick her out of office. Bali has a large hindu population, and lots of westerners. And our efforts to help in the investigations generated a lot of resentment.
Anyway, the govt has been very authoritarian, and kept the more obvious atrocities out of the international media spotlight. In other words, they have been pragmatic and rational.
If any Indonesian govt eased up too quickly, I suspect they would be either overthrown, or find themselves having to run at the front of the mob to hold their positions at all.

Defense vs social welfare

According to ACT's website, the NZ govt is spending 10X more each year on welfare than we do on defense. This is some nasty kind of insanity.
Before we go jumping on those on some form of income support, I think there are other places where savings could be made. Particularly in the field of admin. At present, every time a benefit changes from one form to another, all forms of ID have to be resubmitted, all of the personal information forms have to be filled out all over again, and then all of this has to be re-entered into the WINZ computer system(for which I'm certain they paid too much, btw), and this all costs money. This shouldn't have to be done.
At present, everyone getting some form of income support has a community services card, and I think these could be used far more effectively.
Lets take a single, unemployed male, for example. Rent, up to set amount, charge to the community services card. Same for groceries and petrol, if a car is owned. A set amount can be spent per week, with the card, on bus and/or train fare. Any other regular expenses must be negotiated with the case manager. On top of that, $20 a week spending money. Anytime the card is used at an eft-pos machine, a complete list of products bought is forwarded to a mainframe and luxury items, including smokes, alchohol, sweets, etc are redflagged, and the costs subtracted from the weekly spending money.
For a student, the same, except course costs can be charged, along with stationary, etc. And the $20/wk is for those with a c- average. C average gets $40/week, c+ average gets $60 etc.

So much for the welfare side of things. Where should we be spending our military money? As an ex-soldier myself, I have a few thoughts on that matter. These have been developed progressively since I left the army. Since 1991 I've been studying military history from Scipio to Hannibal(I'm not a fan), Caesar to Lieutenant-General Bernard Freyberg(I am a fan). I've also been hanging out online with a rather diverse group of American military folk, some currently serving, some not.
First things first, service pay is currently profoundly insulting. Come on people! These men and women hand over a large chunk of the rights civvies take for granted, in order to stand between the pleb mob and whatever harm would come their way. And they get treated like absolute crap by civvies into the bargain. Before any money is spent on marketing, it should be spent on training. High frequency, high intensity training. When not on excersise, all uniformed personnel should be putting at least 100 rounds a day down the range. That alone will start to cost big bucks. In addition, outside working hours, base ranges should be open, with service members able to purchase ammo at cost. What the hell, let civvies with firearms licenses in there too, for a charge. That should help with some of the costs.
Armoured Corps next. Apparently, we've had M113 Gavins in the past, and I think we should go back to them. They're light, air-transportable, amphibious, and just the right size to carry an 8-man section with a good load of extra-ammo. Use the LAV's for carting VIPs around or something. Maybe target practice. Just as long as no one important is forced to used the pocking things. Like soldiers. Politicians we can afford, soldiers we can't.
Hell, just have the rifle ranges open 6 days a week will take care of any recruiting problems, without spending money on tv and radio commercials.
More later.